One of the most frequent questions I receive at the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) is, “How can we accurately forecast agricultural production?” After all, anyone in the agriculture industry knows that regardless of how accurate you are, every year the weather can wreak havoc on any forecasts. This is why NASS doesn’t simply rely on formulas when we prepare our forecasts. Our data incorporate input from hundreds of thousands of farmers and ranchers across the United States.
The past few years have given us a great opportunity to highlight the importance of farmer surveys. Last year, producers were battered by some of the most significant floods on record, which were followed by a summer that broke several heat records. Although many crops were affected, one result was that U.S. growers produced significantly less wheat. North Dakota farmers, the nation’s leading Durum wheat growers, planted a record-low number of acres in 2011. If farmers themselves didn’t report this information to us, there would be no other way NASS could accurately estimate the results of such an unusual year.