“Well, this shouldn’t take long,” Dr. David Garen said as I sat down to interview him about April snowpack conditions. “March was warm and dry. Spring came early and the snowpack is already melting across most of the West. The End.”
Garen is a hydrologist with the USDA’s Natural Resources Conservation Service. Among other duties, he creates forecast maps and helps write the West-wide forecast summary for the Snow Survey Program.
“This year we had record low snowpack up and down the West Coast,” said Garen. “But even in the areas that had normal snowpack, it’s melting earlier than usual.” Historically, April 1st is when the snowpack peaks. This year has been different.
California, Oregon and Washington continue to have record low snowpack. The oldest snow courses in the country, established more than 100 years ago by snow survey and water supply forecasting pioneer Dr. James E. Church, are at record lows. During March, the warm temperatures spread across the West. Instead of an extra month of snow accumulation, snowmelt is well underway.
“The only holdouts are higher elevations in the Rockies,” said Garen. “Look at the map and you’ll see that almost everywhere else is red.” Red indicates less than half of the normal snowpack remains.
A consequence of the early snowmelt is that Western states will have reduced streamflow later this spring and summer.
What does this all mean? Snow Survey can forecast but cannot change the water supply. And as this year demonstrates, water supply is variable and not something we can take for granted. But that doesn’t mean we’re helpless or left without options.
Proactive conservation can help your land retain water. A one percent increase in soil organic matter results in as much as 25,000 gallons of soil water per acre. By promoting soil health, you create an unseen reservoir on your land, which your crops will draw from in the absence of rainfall or irrigation.
NRCS monitors conditions year-round and will continue to issue monthly forecasts until June. The water supply forecast is part of several USDA efforts to improve public awareness and manage the impacts of climate change, including drought and other extreme weather events. Through the creation of the National Drought Resilience Partnership, launched as part of the President’s Climate Action Plan, federal agencies are working closely with states, tribes and local governments to develop a coordinated response to drought.
Since 1939, USDA has conducted snow surveys and issued regular water supply forecasts. Other resources on drought include the U.S. Drought Monitor. For information on USDA’s drought efforts, visit USDA Disaster and Drought Information. And to learn more about how NRCS is helping private landowners deal with drought, visit the NRCS’ drought resources.
