FAQs and Resources

WASDE FAQs

How is the WASDE Prepared?

The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is prepared monthly by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees (ICECs), which are chaired by the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board analysts and comprising representatives from the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS), Economic Research Service (ERS), Farm Service Agency (FSA) and Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) is a primary source of data on domestic production. The nine ICECs- one for each commodity- compile and interpret information from USDA and other domestic and foreign official sources to produce the report.

WASDE provides annual forecasts for supply and use of U.S. and world wheat, rice, coarse grains, oilseeds, and cotton. The report also covers U.S. supply and use of sugar, meat, poultry eggs and milk, as well as Mexico’s supply and use of sugar. 

To ensure that the WASDE market-sensitive projections are released simultaneously to all end-users, and not prematurely to any one, the WASDE report is prepared under tight security in a designated “lockup” area of USDA’s South Building. On the morning of release, doors in the “lockup” area are secured, window shades are sealed, and telephone and Internet communications are blocked. Once analysts present their credentials to a guard, they enter the secured area to finalize the WASDE report. During lockup, NASS shares with WOAB analysts production data which they use to finalize projections. Lockup is lifted when the report is released at 12:00 noon Eastern time.
 

What information sources are used to develop WASDE projections?

The Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees rely on information from a wide range of sources across USDA and other government departments. The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) is the primary source of information on U.S. crop and livestock production and stocks, while information on foreign production is gathered from many sources including USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) attaché reports, official data released by foreign governments, satellite imagery, and weather data. U.S. agricultural trade data comes from the US Census Bureau and FAS. The Economic Research Service (ERS) compiles and analyzes information on domestic use, prices, and agricultural policy, and various types of data from the Agricultural Marketing Service, Farm Service Agency, the Energy Information Administration (within the Department of Energy), and other government agencies is also used.

This broad information base is reviewed and analyzed by ICEC members who bring diverse expertise and perspectives to the process. To arrive at consensus forecasts, alternative assessments of domestic and foreign supply and use are considered at the ICEC meetings. Throughout the growing season and afterwards, estimates are compared with new information on production and utilization, and historical revisions are made as necessary.
 

What do the commodity balance sheets cover?

The WASDE reports a full balance sheet for U.S. and world wheat, rice, and coarse grains (corn, barley, sorghum, and oats), oilseeds (soybeans, rapeseed, palm), and cotton. U.S. coverage is extended to sugar, meat, poultry, eggs, and milk. Separate estimates are made for components of supply (beginning stocks, imports, and production) and demand (domestic use, exports, and ending stocks). Domestic use is subdivided into major categories, for example corn for feed and corn for ethanol. The demand side of the balance sheet may include a category for “residual” or “unaccounted” disappearance to balance known uses against total supplies.

The WASDE also reports forecast season-average farm prices for most items. Prices tie together both sides of the balance sheet. Market prices aid in rationing available supplies among competing uses. The process of forecasting price and balance sheet items is complex and involves the interaction of expert judgment, commodity models, and in-depth research by USDA analysts on key domestic and international issues.
 

Where can I access historical WASDE projections?

Consolidated Historical WASDE Report Data 2010-2022 (WASDE) Report data in .CSV format updated each month, the day after the WASDE release). You can access previous (not consolidated) WASDE reports since 1974 on the archival site on Mann Library.
 

What explains variations between world export and import totals of different commodities in the WASDE?

World imports and exports may not match for many reasons, including differences in marketing years between countries, shipments in transit reported as exports but not yet as imports, and differences in data collection methods across countries.
 

Why do production forecasts in the WASDE sometime differ from those reported by foreign governments?

The WASDE doesn’t automatically adopt the production forecasts reported by any foreign country or non-government entity.  USDA conducts its own analyses to forecast foreign production throughout the growing season utilizing all available information including weather conditions, satellite imagery of vegetative health, yield modeling techniques, and field reports (when available) from USDA staff overseas.  USDA also closely tracks production forecasts from foreign governments and other public and private sources which provide valuable points of comparison.   In many cases the “final” figure reported by USDA reflects the official data released by those countries, but only if those figures are consistent with the range of likely outcomes predicted by USDA. For some countries and commodities, differences in the way local marketing years are defined compared to USDA’s standard can create the appearance of discrepancy between USDA and foreign estimates.
 

What do the prices in the WASDE represent and how are they calculated?

The WASDE reports the average price received by farmers for their crops over the course of the marketing year.  Commodity prices vary both geographically and seasonally, so the “Average Farm Price” represents a national average price weighted by the quantity of that season’s production sold each month.   USDA/NASS reports national average crop prices monthly, which are combined with NASS marketing weights to arrive at season average prices to date.  For a marketing year still underway, recent price data is combined with forecasts for the remainder of the year by applying historic marketing weights to price forecasts based on futures markets, anticipated supply and use changes, various modeling techniques, and internal analyses.   Season average price forecasts prior to the start of a marketing year are constructed using futures market data, information on forward contracting, historic price trends and cross-correlations between commodities, and information about supply and use conditions anticipated during the marketing year.
 

Additional Resources

ERS Commodity Outlook Reports

Each month, following the release of the WASDE, USDA’s Economic Research Service publishes detailed reports that provide additional analysis, discussion, and data relevant to the most recent WASDE.   These reports can be accessed through the links below:

• Feed Outlook
• Rice Outlook
• Oil Crops Outlook
• Cotton and Wool Outlook
• Wheat Outlook
• Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook
• Livestock, Poultry and Dairy Outlook

FAS Reports

Each month, following the release of the WASDE, USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service publishes detailed reports describing the crop production outlook in key countries and regions of the world.  There reports can be accessed through the links below:

• World Agricultural Production
• Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade
• Grain: World Markets and Trade
• Cotton: World Markets and Trade

Data Resources

Foreign Markets and U.S. Trade:

• Production, Supply and Distribution Database (PSD Online)
• Global Agricultural Trade System (U.S. Exports and Imports)
• Export Sales Report
• Global Agricultural Information Network (Agricultural Attaché Reports)

Domestic Markets:

• Quick Stats A queryable database containing survey data published by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) on crops and animal products.  
• Feed Grains Database The Feed Grains Database is an interactive database that provides detailed supply and use data for four main feed grains (corn, grain sorghum, barley, and oats), as well as foreign coarse grains like rye, millet, and mixed grains, hay and other related products. The database features data from the monthly Feed Outlook and Feed Grains Yearbook tables, presented in a user-friendly format that allows for easy querying. Users can access information on a monthly, quarterly, or annual basis, depending on the specific data series they are interested in.
• Crop Production Report This monthly report contains crop production data for the U.S., including acreage, area harvested, and yield.
• Livestock and Meat Domestic Data: Provides Most recent tables from Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook.
• Dairy Data This Dairy Data page includes data files covering domestic supply, demand, and international trade of various dairy products.
• USDA Market News This service provides price and sales information for farm commodities, including key wholesale, retail, and shipping data. The reports include data for a wide range of commodities including field crops, dairy, livestock, meats, poultry, eggs, fruits, vegetables, well as organic and local/regional foods.